FHSAA Bracket Predictions - It's HERE!
Remember the unveiling is LIVE today at 2:00pm on the FHSAA YouTube channel!
Let’s talk first about how I looked at this and interpreted the FHSAA system, as it is important to understanding these predictions. The FHSAA is on record that the system for ranking is mostly MaxPreps, but not exactly. I took the final regular season rankings from the April 6th release and followed it through the district playoffs to come up with the predictions.
I did not weigh a district win more than a regular season win.
Don’t ask about “why did we not get in when we beat Team B?”. Head-to-head is already embedded in the power rankings and there were dozens of A beats B, B beats C and C beats A. Looking at one game is purely ignoring how this works, which is the TOTAL RESUME of the team.
This is easily a harder bracket to predict than last year was. The bunching of rankings seemed to increase, and I suspect that is due to how the FHSAA allows schools to skip playing district opponents, meaning more competitive results this year. Those counties that still overrule the FHSAA ruling on that might need to think it through more if their schools fell short of the #8 seed.
There is no reason to expect the FHSAA cares about immediate rematches, so don’t be surprised if you see the district final you just saw again in the first round.
Remember to tune in to the live release on the FHSAA YouTube channel today at 2:00pm! If classes are not an issue, get a watch party going!
And most importantly, don’t take these predictions as a given; At a minimum, I spent probably 35 hours analyzing and covering the District playoffs via the Morning Coffee’s and the last few days as the districts played out, but I am certainly not perfect at this. Expect some misses.
Okay, here we go:
Region One
Boys 1A
#1 Bolles vs #8 Maclay
#2 Oak Hall vs #7 Trinity Catholic
#3 Pensacola Catholic vs #6 Menendez
#4 Episcopal School vs #5 South Walton
1st out is West Florida and 2nd out is Providence
Explanation:
The toughest thing to call in this region is the #2/#3 seeding of Oak Hall and Pensacola Catholic. Coming into the playoff season, they were only 0.541 apart and each went on to win their district comfortably. Each won 3 games, but PC’s games were higher-ranked, with Oak Hall beating Eastside, Sant Fe and #7 Trinity Catholic (Trinity took out #5 Menendez). PC took Pensacola, 1st Team Out West Florida and #6 South Walton. This is VERY CLOSE and don’t be surprised if PC takes the #2 slot, but I see OH in a squeaker as #2.
Another tough call is #6/#7 between Trinity Catholic and Menendez. TC did win the district matchup but Menendez did come in with a 3.423 lead. If they had played in the regular season and TC had won, I would say TC at #6, but looking at the total resume, I think Menendez still slots ahead of Trinity Catholic.
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Boys 2A
#1 Lake Mary vs #8 Lake Brantley
#2 Ponte Vedra vs #7 Creekside
#3 Gulf Breeze vs #6 St Augustine
#4 Nease vs #5 Fletcher
1st team out is Leon and 2nd team out is either Niceville or Seminole
Explanation:
The hardest part here is how to handle the #4/#5 slotting of Fletcher and Nease. They came into the playoffs with Fletcher having a 0.662 lead, which included a regular season 12-8 win over Nease, only to see Nease turn that around in the district 2 semifinal. Fletcher lost 3 of their last 4 games, while Nease ran off 6 before losing to Ponte Vedra in the finals. It’s close, but Nease did enough to leap above Fletcher and get the home game.
The other tough call is for #8, with Lake Brantley holding a 0.852 lead over Leon coming in. Both teams had similar resumes from 4/6 on, with an easy win in the quarterfinals and a close win over teams in the 2nd/3rd out slots. Both lost their district finals and I see Lake Brantley holding on to the narrow margin.
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Girls 1A
#1 Ponte Vedra vs #8 West Florida
#2 Episcopal School vs #7 St Augustine
#3 Pensacola Catholic vs #6 Bolles
#4 Oak Hall vs #5 South Walton
1st team out is Booker T Washington and 2nd team out is Fleming Island or Menendez
Explanation:
Episcopal 15-4 over Bolles in Region 1 1A D2
Ponte Vedra 20-4 over St Augustine Tuesday in D3
Pensacola Catholic 14-1 over South Walton in D1
Coming into the districts:
Ponte Vedra #1 at 13.682 beat Episcopal, did not play PC, very strong SOS
Episcopal #2 at 13.294 beat Pensacola Catholic and lost to Ponte Vedra, very strong SOS
Pensacola Catholic #3 at 12.462, only losses at ESJ and at Bishop Moore, two highly rated teams. The biggest issue for them was a much lower SOS.
As we discussed before, travel is a HUGE issue for this region and home games for the Panhandle are worth their weight in gold. The opponents for those 3 were South Walton #5 at 9.135, Bolles #6 at 6.649 and St Augustine #7 at 3.639.
This is an AMAZINGLY close call, so we’ll go with how they came into the District playoffs, but don’t be surprised by any slotting of these 3, as all of them had a similar playoff experience.
The only other close call is the #7/#8 slotting of St Augustine and West Florida, but St Augustine had a better semifinal win while having the 0.46 advantage coming in.
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Girls 2A
#1 Bartram Trail vs #8 Fletcher
#2 Lake Mary vs #7 Gulf Breeze
#3 Forest vs #6 Tocoi Creek
#4 Creekside vs #5 Oviedo
1st team out is Lake Brantley and 2nd team out is Apopka
Explanation:
Amazingly, Fletcher took D2 as the 8th team out, with wins over Nease and Mandarin. The district was getting one bid only, and they grabbed the opportunity, coming from a -5.881 raw ranking. Gulf Breeze also represents a one-bid D1, as this region’s overall rankings where surprisingly deep. Apopka’s quarterfinal loss to Winter Springs completely took them out of the picture.
Where it gets really interesting is the #6 seed, contested between Tocoi Creek and Lake Brantley. Tocoi led by 0.756 coming in, but lost their semifinal badly to BT, while LB lost to Oviedo in their semifinal, but by 11-7. It looks like Tocoi should hold on to the at-large, but don’t be surprised in GB gets the #6 seed ahead of them. Tocoi held that edge by 1.379 going into the playoffs and Gulf Breeze did win their district.
Region 2
Boys 1A
#1 Benjamin vs #8 All Saint’s Academy
#2 Lake Highland vs #7 Jensen Beach
#3 Bishop Moore vs #6 Holy Trinity
#4 Montverde vs #5 St Edward’s
1st team out is First Academy and 2nd team out is Cocoa Beach
Explanation:
Certainly, no surprises in the Top 3 and at #8, as All Saint’s won the #8 seed, one bid D6 over Lake Wales.
Coming into the playoffs, Montverde held a 2.009 lead over St Edward’s and their loss to LHP, combined with St Edward’s loss to Benjamin, should keep Montverde in the #4 slot, but St Ed’s did have a win over Jensen Beach, while Montverde’s loss was in the semifinal. The spread should narrow, but Montverde will hold onto the slot.
The last tough choice came down to the #7 spot, as Jensen Beach came in at 6.662 and the last at-large while First Academy was First Team Out at 5.891. First Academy beat Trinity Prep in the D5 quarters (1.277) and lost to LHP, while Jensen beat John Carroll Catholic in the D8 quarters (-13.213) and lost to St Edward’s, which should narrow the gap considerably. This truly is a coin toss, so don’t be surprised either way. I’ll take Jensen Beach to barely hold on, but FA has just as good a case.
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Boys 2A
#1 Winter Park vs #8 Olympia
#2 Vero Beach vs #7 Lake Nona
#3 Timber Creek vs #6 West Orange
#4 Boone vs #5 Viera
1st team out is Lake Minneola and 2nd team out is Windermere
Explanation:
Winter Park clearly earned the #1 slot, but then we get to a bunched group of Boone at 8.383, Timber Creek at 7.664, Vero at 7.641, Viera at 6.969, West Orange at 6.041 and Lake Nona at 5.598. And what a wild group of district games to mess with that!
Timber Creek beat Boone in the D6 semifinal before losing to Winter Park. Vero edged past Viera in the D8 final. First Team Out Lake Minneola beat #8 seed Windermere before losing to Second Team Out Olympia in the final. Olympia got there by beating Lake Nona in the D7 final. So how does this play out in the most unpredictable of the brackets?
Boone’s loss makes it the most difficult to predict for slotting. They led Vero by 0.742, but I see Vero taking the #2 slot. Windermere drops out of the #8 seed, to be replaced by a D7 winning Olympia, as seen below. West Orange and Viera are very tight too, with Viera leading by 0.928. Even though Lake Minneola had the win over Lake Nona in the regular season, the gap between them is 3.220, which is too much for them to leap ahead since that gap includes the head-to-head game. What is REALLY interesting is that Olympia came in 3.641 behind Lake Nona, so the Olympia total resume is still behind Lake Nona’s, so I think we put Olympia at #8 and Lake Nona at #7.
Now, we’re down to West Orange, Boone, Viera and Timber Creek. Timber Creek will be above Boone. West Orange can’t be above Boone. Viera and Timber Creek are very close. I think that what hurts West Orange is their district wins were not against teams that held up in the playoffs and their SOS is not strong compared to the others. Whatever I put in 3-6, don’t be surprised if it is all wrong, that’s how close these calls will be.
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Girls 1A
# 1 Lake Highland vs #8 All Saint’s Academy
#2 Bishop Moore vs #7 Holy Trinity
#3 Edgewood vs #6 Berkeley Prep
#4 Cypress Creek vs #5 Satellite
1st team out is Trinity Prep and 2nd team out is First Academy
Explanation:
Again, All Saint’s Academy takes the one-bid D with the win over Horizon. Lake Highland is way ahead of Bishop Moore in the raw rankings, so even a Bishop Moore upset tonight wouldn’t drop them to #2. BM is also far enough ahead of Satellite and Edgewood that they are getting #2 regardless of those two playing for the D8 title.
The #7 slot is tight between Holy Trinity at 4.953 and Trinity Prep at 4.428. Holy Trinity lost to Satellite in the D8 semifinal, while Trinity Prep lost to Bishop Moore in the D7 semifinal. HT looks like they will hold on to the #7 slot and Trinity Prep is 1st out.
Edgewood took the D8 title last night over Satellite and Cypress Creek took D5 over Berkeley Prep. The #4/#5 seeds are between Satellite (9.814) and Cypress Creek (8.529). Satellite’s loss to Edgewood after beating Holy Trinity at 4.953 vs Cypress Creek’s Pasco win and the win over Berkeley at 7.774 should be enough to move Cypress Creek to #4 and Satellite drops to #5. Just like Boys 1A in this region, we have a difficult #7 slot, it comes down to Holy Trinity and Trinity Prep. Coming in, HT was 4.953 and Trinity Prep at 4.428. HT beat Merritt Island at (-9.642) before losing to Satellite, while Trinity Prep beat Lake Buena Vista at -12.468 before losing to Bishop Moore. Holy Trinity should hold on to #7.
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Girls 2A
#1 Hagerty vs #8 Bartow
#2 Vero Beach vs #7 Lake Howell
#3 Viera vs #6 Winter Park
#4 West Orange vs #5 East Ridge
1st team out is Windermere and 2nd team out is Boone
Explanation:
The first three slots were easy after Vero took the D8 title over Viera and Bartow was another of the #8 seed, one-bid districts after their win over Celebration. None of the First Four Teams out did enough to make a case to move up so it’s Windermere and Boone as the 1st 2 out.
West Orange completed their D6 title with their 7th straight win, by 9-8 over East Ridge and that should flip their position with East Ridge. Winter Park’s D5 semifinal win over Lake Howell makes them the #6 seed.
Region 3
Boys 1A
#1 Community School vs #8 Barron Collier
#2 Cardinal Mooney vs #7 Berkeley Prep
#3 Jesuit vs #6 Canterbury
#4 Bishop Verot vs #5 Calvary Christian Clearwater
1st team out is Wesley Chapel and 2nd team out is Estero
Explanation:
Yesterday, we wrote this:
Community School 15-4 win over Bishop Verot in Region 3 1A D12
Cardinal Mooney vs Out-of-Door Academy Thursday
Jesuit vs Berkeley Prep
The race for the #1 seed in will come down to Community and Cardinal Mooney. While I fully expect CM to beat ODA tonight, the margin coming into the districts was only 0.793, with CM at 16.816 and Community at 16.023. ODA is way down the list, while BV was the #4 seed. I would guess that Community will jump CM regardless of the D11 result, but again, this is very tight.
Another interesting part of last night’s result was how this affects the BV #4 seed. Coming into districts, BV was #4 at 13.595 and Calvary Christian Clearwater was #5 at 13.512. A good insight into the rankings, as CCC beat two low-ranked teams while BV took a win over seeded Canterbury. I think they do hold on to the #4 seed.
Cardinal Mooney did win the D11 final easily and I still will go with Community jumping them to #1, but if CM does hold on, we’ll need to try to think through how. Jesuit did handle Berkeley Prep but they came in 1.989 points behind CM, so I see CM keeping the #2 seed, with Jesuit 3rd.
The last spot came down to 3 teams, with Estero’s (4.057) loss to Barron Collier (3.308) knocking them out of the #8 spot, so it was Barron vs Wesley Chapel (3.412). Barron’s win over Estero was far better than WC’s over Tampa Prep, so BC gets the #8 seed.
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Boys 2A
#1 Plant vs #8 Steinbrenner
#2 Newsome vs #7 Manatee
#3 Lakewood Ranch vs #6 Venice
#4 Gulf Coast vs #5 Lakeland
1st team out is Palm Harbor and the 2nd team out is Mitchell
Explanation:
Last night’s games included a solid Plant win over Newsome to ensure Plant the #1 seed (although a loss to Newsome might still have kept then there with the 2.385 gap coming in. Lakewood Ranch’s thrilling 16-15 win helps settle some, but there’s a question of if they jump Lakeland into 3rd. Steinbrenner won D10 over Mitchell and is from a one-bid district, as both them and Mitchell were 2nd/3rd team out, albeit not terribly behind Manatee. I think Steinbrenner gets the #8 seed due to this.
Coming in, we had Lakeland at 8.346, Lakewood Ranch at 7.968, Gulf Coast at 7.84, Venice at 7.644, Manatee at 6.813 and Palm Harbor at 5.531 as 1st team out. Manatee’s D11 semifinal win over Palm Harbor eliminated PH.
Lakewood Ranch’s win should vault them over Lakeland, and Gulf Coast’s win should also move them over Lakeland, who drops to #5. Venice making the D12 final and Manatee making the D11 final should be enough for #6/#7 but don’t be surprised if Steinbrenner jumps Manatee into #7.
This was one competitive season in this region.
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Girls 1A
#1 St Stephen’s vs #8 Canterbury
#2 Community School vs #7 Northeast
#3 Academy of Holy Names vs #6 Naples
#4 St Petersburg Catholic vs #5 Gulf Coast
1st team out is Barron Collier and 2nd team out is Cardinal Mooney
Explanation:
Canterbury takes the one-bid D11 slot at #8 with the win over Bishop Verot and St Stephen’s is the easy #1 seed.
Both Community and Academy of Holy Names both won their districts impressively and will stay the same way they entered the playoffs.
Gulf Coast came in at #4 (10.248 but lost to Naples (6.142) in the D12 semifinals and St Petersburg Catholic was close to GC at 9.119. SPC won twice, including 1st team out Cardinal Mooney (4.071), while GC’s win was over Lely (-5.443). I think SPC will barely leap over GC.
Northeast came in at #6 at 6.699 and their loss to Clearwater Central Catholic in D9, combined with Naple’s win over Gulf Coast, moves Naples above Northeast. Barron Collier’s loss to Community was much more competitive too, and the last slot at #7 was a little tough, but Northeast came in with a 2.000 lead over BC, so they should hold on to that. If Barron jumps to #7 over Northeast, it might show confirmation that District results count more than thought.
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Girls 2A
#1 Plant vs #8 Palmetto Ridge
#2 Manatee vs #7 Palm Harbor
#3 Newsome vs #6 Steinbrenner
#4 Riverview-Sarasota vs #5 Sickles
1st team out is Lakewood Ranch and 2nd team out is Bloomingdale
Explanation:
Plant takes the #1 seed with the big win over Newsome, while Manatee stays just behind. Newsome is a clear #3 and then we get to Sickles and Riverview, who were separated by 0.600. Riverview’s district games were better than Sickles, as they beat the 2nd team out vs Sickles win over a lower ranked Durant. Riverview’s final loss to Manatee was a better showing than Sickles losing to Newsome, so I see Riverview taking the #4 seed away and getting the home game.
Steinbrenner comfortably remains at #6 since the gap between them and Sickles was too large to overcome at 3.759. Palmetto Ridge took D12 as the #8 seed, one-bid winner, leaving 3 teams to battle for the last slot at #7.
They were Bloomingdale at 7.155, Palm Harbor at 6.7287 and Lakewood ranch at 5.890. Palm Harbor took the D10 quarterfinal against Bloomingdale, eliminating them and then lost to Plant. Lakewood Ranch lost to Riverview-Sarasota, a lower ranked team than Plant, in the D11 semifinal, so it looks like Palm Harbor will be the last at-large as the #7 seed.
Region 4
Boys 1A
#1 Saint Andrew’s vs #8 Ransom Everglades
#2 Saint John Paul vs #7 AH-Plantation
#3 Gulliver Prep vs #6 Belen Jesuit
#4 Oxbridge vs #5 Pine Crest
1st team out is Calvary Christian Ft Lauderdale and 2nd team out is Key West
Explanation:
As we said yesterday on Morning Coffee, Gulliver came into District with a small lead over Saint John Paul for the #2 seed and given the results of SJP beating Oxbridge versus Gulliver winning this (Oxbridge at 12.294 and Ransom at 7.348) will the Gulliver lead of 0.934 hold up? SJP beat a higher ranked Cardinal Newman in the semifinal while Gulliver beat Westminster Christian. I suspect SJP will barely sneak into the #2 slot, which would mean their hosting Gulliver in the semifinal if it came down to that. But don’t’ be surprised if Gulliver just hangs on.
Pine Crest’s loss to AH-Plantation made for interesting analysis. Coming in, we had Pine Crest at 10.503, Belen Jesuit at 8.177, Ransom Everglades at 7.348 and AH-Plantation at 6.679. Pine Crest did hold the regular season win over AH-P and it was by a 12-7 score. Based on the total resume approach, Pine Crest should still be ranked above AH-Plantation since the margin was 3.724. Belen’s district win could leap them over PC, but the spread was still a solid 2.326. That’s really close given Belen won 2 games, while PC lost their only one. AH-Plantation trailed Ransom by 0.669 and the win over Pine Crest should leap them above Ransom. I’m going to go with Ransom at #8, AH-Plantation at #7 and the #5/#6 is very close, but PC’s lead is enough to keep them at #5.
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Boys 2A
#1 Jupiter vs #8 Wellington
#2 St Thomas vs #7 Stoneman Douglas
#3 Columbus vs #6 Martin County
#4 Palmetto vs #5 Boca Raton
1st team out is Palm Beach Central and the 2nd team out is Spanish River
Explanation:
When we get to #3 onward, yeesh . . . Palmetto at 10.677, Martin County at 9.472, Boca Raton at 8.899, Stoneman at 8.729 and Columbus at 8.633. Wellington is far behind those and even if they beat Boca Raton, they would still be at #8.
So. Let’s go through the district results. Columbus beat Palmetto in the D16 final. Stoneman was clocked by St Thomas in theirs. Jupiter handled Martin County easily. Martin stays ahead of Stoneman due to the differential coming in. Palmetto stays ahead of Martin for the same reason, but they were ahead of Columbus by 2.044, which should be enough to keep in front of them, but Columbus beat them in the regular season too, so you have to wonder and maybe the software is trained to recognize that?
I have less confidence in my picks here than any other region.
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Girls 1A
#1 American Heritage-Delray vs #8 Ransom Everglades
#2 Benjamin vs #7 Pine Crest
#3 Saint Andrew’s vs #6 King’s Academy
#4 American Heritage-Plantation vs #5 St Edward’s
1st team out is Jensen Beach and the 2nd team out is Cardinal Newman
Explanation:
No real mystery at #1 in AH-Delray, but a tight one for the #2/#3 seed between SA (20.218) and Benjamin (19.815), with Benjamin’s 14-8 win over St Edward’s (15.435) vs SA’s loss to AH-Delray giving Benjamin the slot and the home game in a regional semifinal.
The next slots, #4/#5, came down to St Edward’s and AH-Plantation (15.265). AH-Plantation took the D15 title with the win over Pine Crest (1st Out/8.577). PC was 1st Out because Ransom Everglades took D16 as a one-bid district at 4.156, which was 6th team out coming in. AH-P should leap St Edward’s as they also beat Calvary Christian Ft Lauderdale (5.227).
King’s Academy quietly had a great year and stays at #6.
The final slot, at #7, comes down to Jensen Beach (8.806) vs Pine Crest (8.577).
Jensen beat Suncoast (-11.989) before losing to St Edward’s, while PC beat Cardinal Gibbons (-6.761) and NSU University (5.482) before losing to AH-P. I think that’s enough to cover the 0.229 difference, making Jensen the 1st team out. Cardinal Newman did have a lesser case for the #7 slot after beating Saint John Paul in the semifinals of D14, but not enough. They do become 2nd team out.
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Girls 2A
#1 Stoneman Douglas vs #8 Western
#2 Martin County vs #7 Dwyer
#3 St Thomas vs #6 Boca Raton
#4 Jupiter vs #5 Palmetto
1st team out is Olympic Heights and 2nd team out is Park Vista
Explanation:
Yesterday, we wrote:
Martin County 16-14 over Jupiter in Region 4 2A D13
Stoneman Douglas 16-6 over Boca Raton in D14
This is the battle for #1 seed in Region 4, as St Thomas was 1.054 behind MC for the 2nd seed coming in and Martin’s win over Jupiter was bigger in ranking then STA’s over Western.
Coming in, it was Stoneman at #1 and 12.731, while Martin County was at 11.757. Boca Raton was well below Jupiter in raw ranking numbers, but I think the gap is too much to make up for Martin with the two results. Either way, Stoneman already lost to St Thomas in the regular season badly, while STA and MC did not play, so the road to Naples still has to go through St Thomas.
If St Thomas is ranked higher than either, it points to the influence of STA’s tough schedule and the accumulation of their opponents winning districts, kicking up their power ranking. We need to watch for that effect for the future. That also means that Stoneman could possibly be passed by Martin County,
Last night, it was Palmetto taking the D16 title over upstart Olympic Heights 11-9.
This region is a battle for #4/#5 and a battle for #6 through #8.
Coming in, it was Palmetto at 7.195 and Jupiter at 7.172, just a 0.023 difference. Palmetto took wins over Lourdes Academy (-8.887) and OH (-1.148), while Jupiter beat Dwyer (0.818) before losing a close D13 final to Martin County at 11.757.
And now we get to the #6/#7/#8 slots.
Western at 1.277, Dwyer at 0.818, Boca Raton at -0.780, Olympic Heights at -1.148 and Park Vista at -1.769.
Western went 0-1, losing badly to STA
Dwyer went 1-1, beating a bad Palm Beach Gardens before losing to Jupiter competitively
Boca Raton went 1-1, beating Park Vista and losing to Stoneman by 10 . . PV is eliminated from that loss.
Olympic Heights beat West Broward (4th team out) and loses to Palmetto
I think given the total resume approach, I see Western holding on, with Boca and Dwyer, with OH and Park Vista as the two teams out. If there’s a surprise here, it would be Western not making it.
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